Whiskey In 2019: What To Expect

Article originally appears at Forbes

Knowing the nature of the whisky industry, it’s impossible to fully predict what 2019 will bring in terms of new releases, trends, and changes. Yet, a deep look at what came in 2018 can help to predict what the New Year could bring with it. Here’s what to expect.

Discontinuations

The biggest whisky news of 2018 came over summer when Japanese whisky maker, Suntory, announced they would be discontinuing their famed Hibiki 17-Year-Old and Hakushu 12-Year-Old expressions. The news went viral, drinkers bought up as many bottles as they could, and prices on the secondary market skyrocketed. While these expressions were, perhaps, the most well-known ones to be discontinued due to shortages of aged Japanese whisky stock, it isn’t the first time Japan’s whisky market has seen aged expressions pulled off the shelves. Years prior Suntory stopped producing the Hibiki 12-Year-Old and Nikka, the second largest whisky maker in Japan, discontinued the aged range of Yoichi and Miyagikyo single malts.

Looking at the growing popularity of Japanese whisky and its image as a collector’s treasure, 2019 is expected to bring further discontinuations of popular expressions. Yamazaki 18-Year-Old? Hibiki 21-Year-Old? Which bottle will bite the dust next?

Growth of NAS

Another aspect fueling the aforementioned discontinuations is the slow, but steady, acceptance of NAS whisky expressions. Don’t get me wrong, well-aged whiskies that have slowly matured in oak for decades will always be a commodity. NAS or no-age-statement whiskies, however, have come a long way in recent years and 2018 has been instrumental for the category.

Rewind 10 years and no real whisky fan would accept that a bottle was released without stating the number of years it spent in the barrel on the label. Today, led by huge brands like the Suntory Hibiki range and the Macallan, NAS whiskies aren’t only being purchased and consumed, but are now being hunted down and collected. Take the recent releases of Hibiki whisky, namely the Hibiki Blender’s Choice released for the Japanese market and the Hibiki Japanese Harmony 30^th Anniversary bottling released in the US and Europe. Both are NAS whiskies yet both send whisky fans into a frenzy. The latter is the most surprising as the liquid within is the same as the regular, affordable, readily available Hibiki Japanese Harmony. All it took was a different bottle and label, and fans were hooked.

NAS has been growing and will continue to do so, paired with more discontinuations, 2019 will, most likely, further turn the category into the new norm.

Economic Impact

This article isn’t about the economy so I won’t delve too far into the subject, but 2019 is the year the trade wars of 2018 are expected to impact the global economy. The Chinese stock market has seen large losses, the U.S. and China’s trade relationships are still unstable. Along with Brexit in the United Kingdom, it’s hard to predict how the economy will be impacted in 2019, but it’s not looking good.

Speaking to several distributors and whisky producers in both Asia and Europe, most are expecting a slow year. Recent whisky auctions held by both Bonhams and Christie’s have shown signs of slowing down, with many bottles selling for below the expected hammer price. Again, such things are hard to predict, but the overall viewpoint is showing a slight deceleration for the industry in 2019.

New releases, further growth for the American whiskey industry abroad, whiskey further entering the booming world of mixology, and an increase in popularity for world whisky; having observed the industry closely all year, these trends are expected to continue into the New Year.

Cheers to a happy New Year and a great 2019!